There is no doubt that the Gibraltar Chronicle opinion poll published last week marks a trend, which is that the decline in the fortunes of the GSD continues and that the GSLP/LIBS are on the ascendancy. The results of the last elections already marked this trend with only a shift of 350 votes from the GSD to the GSLP/LIBS being the difference that separated the Opposition from being the Government. What the poll shows is that this trend has accentuated and that people have stopped being complacent and apathetic and are taking a more pro-active role in the political life of Gibraltar, as should be the case.

The important poll is certainly the one at the general election and it is Peter Caruana’s prerogative to call an early election or to wait until the last moment and exhaust his mandate in the hope that things will become more favourable for him. Whatever he decides the opposition forces seem to be ready and willing with a strengthened GSLP prepared for every eventuality given the decision of Joe Bossano to stand down as leader of his party in twelve months time. The poll re-enforces our view that with Joe Bossano offering himself as a candidate at the next election the GSLP vote will remain as solid as ever, with the wealth of experience the father of Gibraltar politics can afford his successor being a vital ingredient in the equation. The poll also reflects the myth of those calling on Joe Bossano to step aside before his announced date, given that both the results of the 2007 election and this latest poll reflects an ascendancy in the support of the GSLP/LIBS with Joe Bossano leading the party. It also shows that the frontrunner to succeed him is Fabian Picardo who is the only one who has declared his intention to contest the post, having done so a year ago at the last AGM. As Joe Bossano made clear in the interview with GBC, there are no crown princes within the GSLP with contenders for the post having to win the confidence and support of the members who are the ones that will decide who the next leader of the party will be.

The Gibraltar Chronicle opinion poll, published as it was on the morning of the annual general meeting of the GSLP, has certainly served as a moral booster for the Opposition as a whole and for GSLP members in particular who flocked in large numbers to their annual general meeting. The clear message from that gathering, however, was that the GSLP will not let down it’s guard between now and the next election and that there is no room for complacency, that the elected members will continue with their work inside and outside Parliament and that the active members will continue to prepare the machinery of the GSLP so that it is at full gear once a general election is called. That is, again, as it should be.

The headlines of the Gibraltar Chronicle when announcing the results of their own poll was that it was a “shock” result. It certainly came as no shock to us; it could have been a shock to those at The Chronicle and possibly to the hierarchy of the GSD but not to anyone with an ear on the ground.

The gap in the opinion poll is big but certainly not unreasonable given recent political events. The number of people abstaining [the don’t knows] are certainly not all undecided voters it is a reflection that many people do not want the pollsters to know what their voting intentions are and this could be cured in the future by adopting a system that will secure the confidentiality of those being polled, this is just a constructive suggestion, we do not pretend to teach those at The Gibraltar Chronicle how to suck eggs.